From Costco to Capital Gains: How to Scout Your Next CRE Deal

Costco is steaming ahead with its Australian expansion, recently announcing a new store in Pakenham, Melbourne’s booming southeast. The retail giant will anchor Brookfield’s new Cardinia Logistics Estate with a fuel station, expansive parking, and a full suite of services—built to serve its existing member base in the region.

But this isn’t just a retail story. It’s a masterclass in how large retailers pick locations, and more importantly, how property investors and developers can reverse engineer those decisions to uncover high-potential opportunities.

💡 What Drives a Costco Site Decision?

When Costco (or any large-format retailer) chooses a new site, it’s not random. As Costco’s country manager said:

“The focus is to find lots that are close to our members, and are large enough to house our range of goods, specialty services, fuel stations, and car parks.”

Translation? They’re data-driven and demand-led.

Retailers like Costco—and also Bunnings, Coles, Woolworths, Kmart, and Aldi—rely on:

• Catchment population growth (present and future)

• Arterial road and logistics access

• Land availability and pricing

• Planning/zoning certainty

• Car traffic flow, proximity to fuel stations, and more

  
  

These groups deploy internal analytics teams, demographic heatmaps, and network optimisation software to decide exactly where to build next.

Location scout utilising the work major retailers put in to find optimal locations.

The Shortcut for Property Investors

You don’t need a retail analytics team to benefit from these insights.

By “piggybacking” off the location strategies of major anchor tenants like Costco, developers and investors can shortcut their own due diligence.

When a major player moves in, it often precedes:

• Surrounding land value uplift (as demand increases)

• Amenity improvements (new roads, services, retail)

• Improved leasing demand (for industrial/logistics/retail sites nearby)

• Masterplanned precincts (residential or mixed-use potential)

For example, at Pakenham, Brookfield and Costco’s partnership is catalysing the broader development of Cardinia Logistics Estate. JLL and Colliers are already reporting stronger leasing interest since the announcement.

Commercial property investment: location is (almost) everything

🏗️ Key Takeaways for Developers & Syndicates

• Reverse engineer retail site selection. Study where major players are buying and why.

• Scout fast-growing growth corridors. Costco chose Pakenham because of southeast Melbourne’s population boom.

• Anticipate infrastructure upgrades. When a retailer commits, governments often follow with improved roads and zoning alignment.

• Time your entry. You don’t need to be first just early enough to ride the uplift.

Invest where the anchors lead. These groups have already done the homework. Your job is to interpret the signal, act fast, and structure your investment intelligently.

🧠 Reverse engineer your way to property investment success.

—

Thanks for reading. Would love to hear how others in the commercial property community use anchor tenant strategies in their own projects. Let’s discuss.

CapStack is a boutique commercial finance and capital advisory firm that helps property developers, investors, and SMEs access and structure optimal funding. We work across the capital stack—from senior debt to mezzanine, private capital, and fund syndication—leveraging our lender network and deep market insight to unlock creative solutions. Whether you’re acquiring land, building out a project, or refinancing assets, we tailor strategies to match your vision and risk appetite. Developers should connect with us because we don’t just find finance—we help shape it to move your project forward with speed, certainty, and strategic alignment.

#propertyinvestment #commercialrealestate #realestate #CRE #costco #propertydevelopment #industrialrealestate #propertystrategy #anchorretailers #capitalallocation #syndicates #propertyfunds